Vladimir Putin is a secretive man, and his penchant for discretion is reflected in Russia’s foreign policy. What is worrisome is when Putin, who normally favors proxy forces and covert action, begins making very public moves. Stationing 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine send the world a very clear message: pay attention to what comes next. When he makes his move, you can rest assured that he won’t share the spotlight.

The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are not interrupting Putin’s plans—on the contrary. The Games will provide the Kremlin with two weeks of international distractions while the final pieces are put into place around Ukraine. Towards the end of the Games, or soon after, Putin will start his show. This is not a new strategy for Putin, who has timed military action around the Olympics in the past. In 2008, he ordered the invasion of neighboring Georgia eleven days before the Beijing Olympics began. In 2016, Vladimir Putin began the annexation of Crimea the same day the Sochi Olympics concluded. These were large military operations intended to send clear messages to Russian adversaries. By timing these operations to precede, or succeed the Olympics, Putin claimed as much international attention as possible.

A different side of the same coin occurs when Russia times military operations such that public awareness is minimized. This strategy can be found in Russia’s intervention in Syria, a military campaign with little to gain from publicity. Unlike other major offensives, Russia sought to obfuscate military action by launching attacks during major international events. Continuing with the Olympic theme, Russia’s intervention in Syria includes airstrikes during the 2016 Rio Olympics, Kremlin-linked mercenary activity during the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics, and a bombing campaign during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

The takeaway is this: when Putin engages in military action, he commits to doing so either publicly or in secret. His positioning of troops and equipment on the border with Ukraine indicates the former. With not enough time to successfully invade before Beijing’s 2022 Olympics begin, Putin will bide his time. After the Games, or even in their final days, international media attention will be ripe for Putin’s taking.